Change is coming to the WAC in the next 12 months as programs will come and go. You may not recognize the conference in the years to ahead, but just know that the 2012 season will be no different. You mess with fire and you’ll get burned, WAC-style. Same conference. Same underrated teams. Hey RPI, are YOU catching up yet?

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2011 in a Paragraph:

For the longest time, it looked like Fresno State was in line to host a Regional for the first time since 1992, hanging around the top 15 of the RPI through April. But there were two problems: 1- Hawaii was leading the WAC most of the early part of the season. And 2- The Bulldogs ended up peaking too early. Fresno and Hawaii ended up tied for the WAC regular season title, but the Dogs ended up taking the WAC tourney title and advanced to the Los Angeles Regional. But Fresno ended up being the only WAC team in the post-season and had a cold weekend in Westwood, going 0-and-2 in the Big Dance. Still five of the seven WAC teams ended up with 30+ win seasons, proving once again that the WAC should get more credit than its given. Or at least given the chance to prove it.

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Conference ISR: 9

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HOW THEY’LL FINISH IN 2012:

- The Western Athletic Conference.

1- Fresno State

2- Hawaii

3- New Mexico State

4- San Jose State

5- Nevada

6- Louisiana Tech

7- Sacramento State

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2012 in a Paragraph:

The top of the conference will make a dip down and the bottom of the conference will make a jump up. How’s that for a synopsis? Well it’s true. Fresno still has the best collection of talent, but you never know how the new blood will respond under the spotlight. And Hawaii will once again reprise its role as the antagonist, getting both Fresno and New Mexico State out there on the islands. Never underestimate the travel factor in this conference. Also, never underestimate the offensive capacity of the Aggies, who return most of the sticks that paced them to the being the top offensive unit in D1 baseball. And guess what? NMSU might just have some pitching to go along with that. If that ain’t a WAC opponents’ nightmare, I don’t know what is. The bottom of the WAC should all be improved as well. So look for San Jose, Nevada, Louisiana Tech and Sac State to supply some bruises to anyone and everyone, but won’t have enough to be contenders.

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Favorite: Fresno State

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Contenders: Hawaii, New Mexico State

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Darkhorse: San Jose State

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Can’t-Miss Series of the Year: Fresno State at Hawaii, April 5-7

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Best Non-Conference Series: All of Hawaii’s weekend series.

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Hot Coach: Mike Trapasso, Hawaii

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Hot Seat Coach: None

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The “You Gotta See” Pitcher: RHP Esteban Guzman, San Jose State

The “You Gotta See” Player: 2B, Parker Hipp, New Mexico State

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Three Non-Conference Series WAC Opponents Better Take Seriously:

1- Stanford at Fresno State.

2- Wichita State at Hawaii

3- New Mexico State at Baylor, April 27-28.

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Three Bold Predictions:

1- What am I s’posed to do here, type down that Fresno State will host a Regional for the fifth straight year? Okay, they will.

2- After having only one sub 4.00 ERA team, the WAC will have five of them this year, proving the pitching will be much improved.

3- With their numerous tough road assignments, New Mexico State’s team batting average will actually take a dip and won’t lead the nation.

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- FRESNO STATE (40-16, 17-7)

2011 ISR: 17

Starters Returning: 4

Weekend Starters: 1

Mid-Week Starters: 1

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 4

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All Conference Candidates:

C Austin Wynns (.326-2-21)

OF Aaron Judge (.358-2-30, 12SBs, Freshman All American)

2B Pat Hutcheson (.314)

LHP Tyler Linehan (5-2, 4.27)

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The Good News:

The energy and passion for Bulldog baseball is still very much intact, as witnessed by the fact that for most of the first two-thirds of the 2011 season ‘Dog fans were talking about possibly being a Regional host spot in June. They’ll still have plenty to cheer about in 2012 as coach Mike Batesole still has some serviceable talent leftover. Pitching is always an emphasis at Fresno and soph Tyler Linehan should blossom in his second year and will team with senior holdover lefty Tom Harlan (5-3, 3.84) for a 1-2 punch on weekends. Also returning from the top staff in the WAC (2.91 team ERA) is RHP Taylor Garrison (2-2, 1.32, 3svs), who had the best ERA on the team and was drafted in the 27th round by the Dodgers last summer but decided to return. One of the reasons he’s back is because he will be able to throw to his twin brother  C Trent Garrison (.339-5-45 in 2010), who sat out the 2011 season and he too came back to campus despite getting drafted in the  50th round by the Angels last June. The Bulldogs will need a lot of new talents to contribute right away, so it’s a good thing the incoming class was ranked No. 19 in the country by Baseball America. Watch for a pair of southpaws on the mound in Jordan Lewis and Aaron Gillis, two JC All Americans with mature mound presence. Power-throwing RHP Matt Fontaine, from Ohlone College, should contribute immediately as well. Also watch for SS Chris Mariscal, who was drafted in the 41st round of last June’s draft

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The Bad News:

Lots of upperclassmen in last year’s charges, including some holdovers from the national championship squad of 2008 have moved on. And I mean lots of them. The ‘Dogs had to say goodbye to talents like Jordan Ribera, Danny Muno, Dusty Robinson, Greg Gonzales, Josh Poytress and Derek Benny. Those are names that will go down in Fresno history. In all, 10 Bulldogs were drafted last June, which is a good indication of the continued quality of the program but will also mean there are many holes to fill. Besides 2B Pat Hutcheson, the infield will need a major overhaul with finding new blood at 3B, SS and 1B being the first order of business going into spring. There will also be a major power outage as talents like Robinson, Ribera, Gowens, Weber and Muno accounted for 38 of last year’s 50 home runs and 68 of the doubles.

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Schedule Note:

As usual, Dogfights everywhere.

It’ll be Bulldog vs. Bulldog on opening weekend as Fresno welcomes in Butler in the lidlifter. But from there things get much more serious as they’ll go to Pepperdine, host Stanford, host San Fran, host Bakersfield and host Kent State in the first month of the campaign. The WAC slate has them tripping out to the islands at Hawaii in early April and then to wind-swept New Mexico State in early May. Last year’s schedule was ranked No. 61 in the country by Boyd Nation’s ISR ratings, expect that to get even better this time around.

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- HAWAI’I (34-25, 17-7)

2011 ISR: 60

Starters Returning: 5

Weekend Starters: 2

Mid-Week Starters: 1

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 2

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All Conference Candidates:

RHP Matt Sisto (5-5, 3.67, .250OBA)

3B/SS Pi’ikea Kitamura (.208)

LHP Jarrett Arakawa (5-4, 4.50)

OF Collin Bennett (.292)

OF Zack Swasey (.320, 11SBs)

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The Good News:

The Warriors actually stayed on top of the WAC standings most of last season, which led to a WAC regular season co-championship with Fresno. If the Warriors can regain that level of confidence again this year, there is still talent around to pull it off again. Hopes for going a step further and playing in the NCAAs will depend on how far the starting pitchers can take them. Matt Sisto and Jarrett Arakawa combined for 163 innings last season. A trio of seniors will support them in mid-week starter RHP Connor Little (4-4, 4.99, .222OBA), who returns after being drafted by the Marlins last June, plus RHP Brent Harrison (2-1, 6.53) and Jesse Moore (0-3, 6.60). The offense is still potent, having curried the second-most walks in the WAC with 282 and also having the most stolen bases with 71. OF Breland Almadova (.298, 16SBs) was a part-time leadoff hitter last season and will have a pair of seniors join him in the assault this year with OFs Zack Swasey and Collin Bennett. Catcher Garrett Champion (.242) is a champion behind the dish and also a fellow senior in the order. The incoming recruiting class is stellar to say the least, featuring LHP Scott Squier, a mid-90s flamethrower who was drafted in the 21st round by the Tigers last June. A pair of catchers should shine for the Rainbows in cannon-armed Cody Clark and Tampa Bay Rays draftee Alan Baldwin, who could also play the outfield.

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The Bad News:

It could be argued that had the Warriors not suffered that flat-tire of a finish (they were 10-8 in the month of May), this team could’ve reached the NCAA tournament once again. The UofH doesn’t lose a lot from last season, but what they DO lose has a lot of star-power. All-World talent Kolten Wong takes his whiz-bang talent to the pros now. Joining him will be longtime mainstay Jeff Van Doornum, a great defender at 1st base, and Lenny Linsky, arguably the best arm in the holster last season, with his 1.30ERA and 14 saves out of the ‘pen. It’s hard to lose difference-makers like that and still maintain a high level of play. The Warriors also need to bear down at the dish, having struck out a stunningly-high 442 times last season. A number of viable alternatives must be cultivated in a revamped bullpen and that means a handful of J.C. transfers will need to assimilate immediately.

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Schedule Note:

As seen on ESPN.

I wrote in one of my fall notebooks on the Worldwide Leaders’ website that the Warriors had one of the tougher schedules in the country this season. They always play a high amount of home games, but this time around they’ll get visits from teams like Oregon, Wichita State, MAC favorite Central Michigan, defending WCC champion San Francisco and a trip to much-improved Gonzaga as well. WAC co-champions Fresno State makes the flight to the islands this season to open conference play in early April. From April 20th onward, the Warriors will play 11 of their final 17 games on the mainland in two large chunks. One where they’ll go to San Jose State, then to Grambling/Louisiana Tech and a second trip where they’ll play at Sac State and UC Davis in a four-day span.

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- LOUISIANA TECH (34-27, 12-12)

2011 ISR: 110

Starters Returning: 4

Weekend Starters: 2

Mid-Week Starters: 0

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 2

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All Conference Candidates:

RHP Jeb Stefan (7-4, 4.52)

RHP Trevor Peterson (6-4, 5.08)

1B Alex Williams (.272-4-53)

SS Ryan Gebhardt (.343)

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The Good News:

Things are slowly starting to turn the corner in Ruston as the Techsters finished in 3rd place in the WAC last season and saw them reach the 30+ win total for the first time since 2007. One of the biggest reasons for the turnaround was the arms corps, who dropped their ERA from 7.33 in 2010 to 4.73 last year. Hoping to keep that trend going will be the Friday-Saturday duo of RHPs Jeb Stefan (.246OBA) and Trevor Peterson (.275OBA), who are great blocks to build around. The bullpen is in need of work, but two huge factors remain in uniform in LHP Sam Alvis (2-1, 2.74, 3svs) and RHP Caleb Dudley (5-2, 3.30, 12svs), who combined for 51 appearances last season. Coming back from injury will be senior RHP  Graham Meyers, who has 32 career appearances and holds opposing hitters to a .265 average. He should be a big welcome back after missing most of 2011. Look for the defense to be a strength this year since 1B Alex Williams and SS Ryan Gebhardt will be joined again by their double-play partner in 2B Austin Hedges (.304), who had just 8Es last season. Incoming frosh C Bre’shon Kimbell could be an immediate star as he possesses a cannon arm and was drafted in the 28th round by the Brewers last June, but chose to come to Ruston.

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The Bad News:

This team was a pretty frail club at times last season, particularly once they were out of their comfy confines of home. The Bulldogs had a 9-19 record in regular season road games last year, then went 2-2 in Mesa at the WAC tournament, in which the two losses were by a combined 31-11 score. Yuck. Some really deeply engrained talents have left Ruston off of last year’s squad, including mainstays like  top hitters Kyle Rollard, Mark Threlkeld, Will Alvis and C Clint Ewing. They represent nearly all the big bat pop the Dogs had last season. Staff ace Mike Jefferson has also flown the coop, taking with him 210 innings of work in the last three years. The bullpen will be a rebuilding project based around Caleb Dudley and Sam Alvis, who are the only two arms back with ERAs below 5.00. And the Bulldogs must be more clutch this year as they knocked into 55 double-plays last year (while turning only 38 themselves).

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Schedule Note:

Repeat of 2011?

Last year, the Techsters played a pretty breezy slate for the first few weeks, then got skunked in seven games at Baylor and Rice combined. The schedule is fairly similar this time too as they’ll face teams like UT-Arlington, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Middle Tennessee, Centenary, Lamar and Texas A&M-Kingsville in the first four weeks. But then they’ll step up significantly with a single game at Creighton, followed by a three-gamer at Nebraska, followed by a weekend visit from Dallas Baptist the following week. And this time, the testing won’t stop there as they’ll also go to Oral Roberts on the final weekend before WAC play kicks in at Sac State. Should be interesting.

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- NEVADA (24-31, 12-12)

2011 ISR: 143

Starters Returning: 4

Weekend Starters: 2

Mid-Week Starters: 0

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 4

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All Conference Candidates:

C Carlos Escobar (.290-4-25)

SS Brady Shipley (.287)

RHP Tom Jameson (6-6, 4.84)

RHP Matt Gardner (2-1, 1.71, 6svs, .225OBA)

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The Good News:

The Wolf Pack managed to turn a crappy start into a decent enough finish last season and it would be great to see that carry over to this year. Only four position starters return, but they are key players as C Carlos Escobar (just 2Es), 3B Garrett Yrigoyen (.257-3-33), SS Brady Shipley (11Es) and 2B Joe Kohan (.283-4-34) will be the backbone of a really good defense (.967 fielding last year). Two weekend starters return on the mound, led by staff ace Tom Jameson, and complemented by senior RHP Troy Marks, who didn’t have great numbers – 2-5, 4.21 – but held opposing batters to a .243 average. RHP Tim Culligan (1-3, 7.84) could be primed for a big senior season after a great summer in the West Coast League. The recruiting class brings in a good bit of talent, particularly 1B Kewby Meyer, who was a 48th round pick of the Phillies and could be in the starting lineup on opening day. Also look for big things from RHP Michael York, a JC transfer who is expected to make the weekend rotation.

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The Bad News:

It goes without saying that the Pack can’t afford to limp out to another 5-15 start like they did last season. There’s just too many missing pieces from last season, so every returnee must play up to par or it could be a long season. The offense was a weak link last season, hitting just .275 and will lose the only two hitters that were serious threats in Brock Stassi (who also started eight games on the mound) and Nick Melino, both of whom went above .400 on-base. The pitch staff will need a lot of new arms to come up big time, especially for a staff that was second-to-last in the WAC at 5.38 team ERA.

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Schedule Note:

Travelocity loves them again.

As opposed to last season, the Wolf Pack will go far and wide this season, with trips to New Mexico (on opening weekend), Arkansas, New Mexico State, Seattle and Hawaii. On the other end of the spectrum, UNR and its opponents will be under winter weather advisory as they’ll host Utah Valley in February and UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, LMU and BYU in the month of March. You DO know there is a major ski area within 30 minutes of downtown Reno, right?

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- NEW MEXICO STATE (34-24, 9-15)

2011 ISR: 121

Starters Returning: 7

Weekend Starters: 2

Mid-Week Starters: 1

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 4

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All Conference Candidates:

C Zac Fisher (.398-8-56)

2B Parker Hipp (.396-6-58)

OF Tanner Waite (.389)

SS Tyler Forney (.356)

OF Bryan Karraker (.350-4-33)

LHP Ryan Beck (10-5, 5.95)

RHP Scott Coffman (3-0, 1.88, 9svs, .225OBA)

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The Good News:

You know the Aggies and you know their M.O., they’re going to bludgeon your pitching staff until they either wave a white flag or they put themselves in those white jackets that tie in the back. NMSU once again led the nation in hitting at .337, and the part I love it that’s still 14 percentage points better than the No. 2 hitting team (Wright State at .323). Un-freakin-real. And the ominous news for any pitcher that dares to stare them down from atop the hill, as you can see from the All WAC candidates list above the top five hitters all return and there are seven returnees who hit .312 or better, including 3B Zachary Voight (.327-2-38) and 1B Kurt Snowley (.312). Don’t know how they do it, but this program is a remorseless hitting machine. But get this, one of the most unnoticed gems about Rocky Ward-coached teams is that they regularly are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate in the country. Last season, the Aggies pulled 333 walks, good for 3rd in the country. Two of the more underrated players in the country are C Zac Fisher (just 2Es last season) and, of course, 2B Parker Hipp (if he played at South Carolina, would be a two-time All American). Two of the three weekend starters come back in LHP Ryan Beck and RHP Tyler Mack (6-5, 9.68), and they’ll have 11-game starter LHP Trev Ross (5-4, 8.13) returning as well. Scott Coffman is the best arm on the staff, posting a 1.88ERA with 9svs, and he also has 80 career appearances as an Aggie… and counting.

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The Bad News:

The Thursday before WAC play kicked in, the Aggies were 22-6 and primed for a big season and return to the NCAAs. But they went just 12-18 the rest of the way, including a losing mark in WAC play and a pair of blowout losses in the post-season tournament. Try not to act shocked  when I tell you that their pitching staff had the worst ERA in the WAC at 7.48 and issued a conference-high 293 free passes. And things weren’t much better behind them as the worst defense in the conference had a shoddy .950 fielding percentage. So it’s not always the greatest thing to see that all five infielders come back to their posts. Center fielder Wesley Starkes was the only real pressure threat on the basepaths (13SBs) and he has hit the bricks.

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Schedule Note:

Out of their comfort zone.

It seems like this year, more than any I can recall (which is a questionable thing, for sure), the Aggies will be going out on the road and away from the launching pad that is Presley Askew Field. They’ll play two at Rice in the opening week of play, then go to Minneapolis to play Minnesota, Nebraska and West Virginia in the third weekend, go to Arizona for two games in mid-March and play a pair of games at Baylor in late April. In addition, some interesting home weekends against Wake Forest (season opener) and a great three-gamer with Kent State will help the RPI. Sure, there will be their fair share of guaranteed Ws (when you’re geographically challenged New Mexico State, scheduling can be a bitch) in Sacred Heart, Southeast Missouri and Texas-Pan Am coming in for weekend series. In WAC play, the Ags will host Fresno and travel to Hawaii.

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- SACRAMENTO STATE (19-39, 6-18)

2011 ISR: 196

Starters Returning: 5

Weekend Starters: 2

Mid-Week Starters: 0

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 3

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All Conference Candidates:

OF David Del Grande (.260)

RHP Shea Lukes (1-0, 3.24)

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The Good News:

Year two of the Reggie Christiansen era should go much smoother for the Hornets as Reg and his assistants Tommy Nicholson, Thad Johnson and Jake McKinley all get used to the lay of the land a little bit better in the Golden State’s capitol city. Despite the ups and downs of the 2011 season, the Hornets were a pretty good defensive team, fielding at .969, which was 3rd in the WAC. They’ll have three positions stocked with experience in 1B Derrick Chung (.256), 2B Andrew Ayers (.250) and 3B Will Soto (.254). The pitch staff had a 5.23 team ERA and returns two weekend starters on the hill in RHPs Dallas Chadwick (2-5, 4.97) and Tanner Mendonca (2-6, 5.73). They’ll also return saves leader Brandon Creel (2-2, 5.76, 2svs) and sophomore RHP Shea Lukes (1-0, 3.24) who should have a bigger role in his 2nd season.

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The Bad News:

A 4-10 finish in WAC play last May ruined the chances for Sac State to take part in the post-season tournament. The biggest sore spot was the offense that hit just .244 and doesn’t return a single regular who hit better than .260 (though Brett Hottman, who started 21 games hit .319). To make matters worse, this team wasn’t much on patience either, pulling a WAC-low 179 walks at the dish. Beyond the five names mentioned above, the pitching staff won’t have much else coming back to the arms corps, so you’ll see a lot of youth in that staff, which is always dicey.

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Schedule Note:

A short leash.

After their three-game weekend at Louisiana Tech in early April, the Hornets won’t venture far off campus. From April 11th to the end of the regular season, the Big Green will play 16 home games and just seven road games, those coming at UC Davis, at San Jose State and at Fresno State. Hopefully this will help ameliorate that late season slide like last year’s.

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- SAN JOSE STATE (35-26, 11-13)

2011 ISR: 82

Starters Returning: 4

Weekend Starters: 2

Mid-Week Starters: 0

Key Relievers (20+inns.): 3

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All Conference Candidates:

SS/RHP Zach Jones (.316-3-26/1-3, 3.98, 10svs)

2B Jacob Valdez (.307, 10SBs)

3B Tyler Christian (.233-6-25)

RHP Esteban Guzman (5-4, 3.33, 2nd team All WAC)

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The Good News:

Jose State got off to a rousing start last season – at 19-9 going into the start of WAC play – which included a series win over UCLA in Brentwood. So this is a team that is capable of big things. Speaking of, the best news of all is that Zach Jones is back for one more season as the absolute bellcow and face of this baseball program. He’s a beast in every facet of the game, hitting, defense and during his numerous stints on the mound (22apps in 2011), where he was the go-to guy for closing out wins. He’s part of an impressive infield that fielded at a .975 pace last season (best defense in the WAC) and includes returnees like 2B Jacob Valdez (just 7Es), 3B Tyler Christian and C Michael DiRocco (.248, just 3Es). Also keep an eye on mercurial OF Andrew Rodriguez, who was the designated thief for the offense last season, stealing 12 bases, despite having just 60 at-bats. Two anchors to last year’s staff return for weekend duty in RHP Esteban Guzman (who returned to campus after getting picked in the 17th round of last June’s draft by the Nationals) and RHP Andy Hennessey (3-4, 4.73). Jones isn’t the only viable choice in the bullpen, look for set-up man LHP Johnny Melero (3-3, 4.29) to play a big part as well, especially after holding opposing batters to a .222 average in his 36 innings of work.

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The Bad News:

Things seemed to be in pretty good sorts for the Spartans last season until a 5-10 month of May cast a pall over their post-season chances. The offense didn’t hit with much pop in the bottom of the order last season, dragging the team average down to .274, second-worst in the WAC. To make matters worse, the top two hitters have both hit the bricks in Danny Stienstra (.349) and Craig Hertler (.328). Both were pretty good running threats as well, stealing 29 bases between them. Pitching-wise, Roberto Padilla and long-time mainstay Blake McFarland leave campus after combining for 17 wins and 29 starts last season. One flinger that will be back on the mound this year is RHP Sean Martin, who made only three starts last year in an injury-shortened season. He was 2-3, 5.12 as a weekend starter in 2010, but must stay injury free this year or the Spartans chances will take another hit.

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Schedule Note:

Better than 19-9?

The Spartans look like a good bet to outlast 2011′s 19-9 record before WAC play as they’ll play a lot of winnable games in February and March. The opener is a tough three-gamer with San Francisco, but beyond that there are a lot of rebuilding teams on the docket before their WAC season opener at Fresno State on April 13th. UC Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Lehigh, Columbia, Utah, UC Davis, Seattle U. and Pacific are some of the teams they’ll face in the weeks that follow. RPI builders? Not bloody likely. Confidence builders? Oh yeah.